On 14 Months Spent Outside

After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! - Edwin Lefèvre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

It’s been some time since I last wrote here, and its been a wild 14 months. We have seen a resumption in global trade conflict not seen since the 1920s, the proliferation of potentially the greatest technological platform in human history spurring a capital cycle for the ages, and a regional war with global implications.

Oh, and I took up a new hobby.

Now, I know what you’re thinking… “uhhh… one of these things is not like the other”. Well, that’s where I’d suggest you read on.

When I last wrote, I was writing from the place of a student of markets taking a historical perspective and reflecting on a time that may have been moving faster than my ability to keep up. Nonetheless, it brought me down the proverbial Rabbit Hole and onto the golf course.

Golf is a funny game. Simple, in its appeal, though highly complex in its practice. Investing too can be this way: “buy and hold”, “set it and forget it”, “8% compounded annually”.

But those sentiments miss the nuance, the repetition, the intuition, the “feel”. It misses the Quality.

On Tempo

I had always been a career-driven person, seeking the next promotion and more “importance” in the workplace. That had served me well for a long time, and between the quiet times of COVID or the natural evolution of a person, I had sought to slow down, to be more deliberate, more purposeful. I was losing that sense of deliberate intent and struggled to find my footing without a focal point set on my career status. Something had to shift, and as luck would have it, I had to play 4 rounds in 3 days at a bachelor party in Ocean City, MD… challenge accepted. Thoreau went to the woods seeking to live deliberately. I went to the golf course. Sometimes, we work with what we have.  

Over these 14 months, I have found many similarities between my two crafts, certainly more than I had bargained for when I dusted off my 15 year old clubs my grandfather handed down.

There is nothing quite like hitting a golf ball pure. That sense of effortless power isn’t such a familiar feeling to an amateur golfer like myself (yet), but it’s one many chase for a lifetime. One thing that has become evident through my brief time training is that more “effort” doesn’t mean better results in the golf swing. Some of the best ball striking days I have had were the days focused on tempo and pace rather than power or technique.

The Opportunity Cost of Excess Action

Markets have always appealed to me for similar reasons to golf: instant feedback, a complex and adaptive system operating in unknown or unknowable conditions, and of course, competition. But markets today are far more complex and narrative driven than ever before: there are more ETFs than there are actual listed companies, concentration in the major indices is higher than ever before distorting what we read in the media, and crony capitalism has made its way back to the zeitgeist, muddying investors ability to accurately digest news flow and underwrite potential outcomes. In short, the markets have become far more opaque than before, leaving me as a stockpicker, wondering what to do.

In March 2025, I wrote about globalization and the tea leaves suggesting its prompt ending and the resumption of a multipolar world. That has largely played out and trillions of capital has been set in motion toward this new world dynamic. That and kinetic warfare on two continents wasn’t enough to hold back the S&P though. Since my last writing in April 2025, the S&P 500 (the largest and “best” stocks in the US), the Nasdaq 100 (the largest and “best” technology-tilted stocks in the US), and the Russell 2000 (the 2000 largest companies in the US, capturing small and mid-sized businesses) are up +50%, +74%, and +64% respectively.

Said another way, if I had done nothing and only held the “entire US economy” (even the whole world! The MSCI ACWI is +51%) through the news and chaotic, unpredictable headlines, I would have slept well at night, spent zero time reading the news, and been a more healthy, well-rounded person (with a better handicap). But instead, like the rest of Wall Street, I stressed, toiled, and fretted away on the portfolio, hoping to avoid landmines while finding new winners.

Back to the Range

My game isn’t where I want it to be, but it’s far better than it was some 14 months ago when I started. I am playing off a 20 handicap now but have broken some key barriers of breaking 100 and 90, and my game is now regularly in the low-to-mid 90s. As for the last 14 months of markets, I have more questions than answers, and so I’m headed back to the range. My boss and girlfriend have their doubts about this connection between golf and markets, but I intend to keep exploring.